SE PA presidential vote trends, 1988-2012

by Nathaniel Smith, Politics: A View from West Chester, February 24, 2014

Here’s an interesting map from “Democrats are from cities, Republicans are from exurbs” by David Jarman, Daily Kos, 2/9/14:










The map shows net change in the number of votes for Democratic and Republican candidates for president in 2012 compared to 1988. It does not show voter registration; so Independents and party-crossing presidential voters are attributed to the party whose candidate they voted for. And it does not take the relative strength of D and R candidates into account: no doubt, Dukakis and Romney would have done better had they been more appealing candidates.

And we know presidential years aren’t typical years. Some blue areas on the map could be white or red in off-year elections. It would be instructive to compare this year’s future results to prior gubernatorial election years. But then, you’d have to add that if the Dem gubernatorial candidate gains over the 2010 candidate, which seems highly likely given the R incumbent’s tanking in the polls, that the D gains could come only from the nature of the candidates, not the voters. Corbett isn’t popular even among R’s.

Still, the map does bear some relation to registration shifts over the past generation. The map shows Chester County as blue, and indeed D’s have closed the registration gap here, though R’s remain in the plurality (not the majority: D’s and I’s outnumber R’s here).

Note the PA trend from the map: relative R gains in the West, relative Dem gains in the East, mixed in the middle. SE Pennsylvania is taking part in Dem growth along the East Coast Metropolitan Corridor, from New England to the Washington DC area….

keep reading at Politics: A View from West Chester


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Filed under 2014 election, Nathaniel Smith, PA govt & politics

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