Hope and change, hope of change: Remarks on the Nov. 6 election

by Nathaniel Smith, Politics: A View from West Chester, December 10, 2012

What does anyone know for sure before an election? Not much, really, except for David Axelrod, who preserved his mustache, and Nate Silver, whose polling analyses have been right on target.

If I’d been predicting, I would have rightly picked Obama, Casey, Kane, McCord, Dinniman, and maybe DePasquale to win. But also, on the local level, I would have picked some Dems who didn’t win.

Besides, there are so many unpredictables and imponderables. Did Obama win in 2008 because of the slide the Republicans entered with the Bush administration’s hurricane Katrina disaster?

And wouldn’t it be ironical if Obama won in 2012 because of renewed public faith in government action resulting from hurricane Sandy and Obama’s response, at the opposite pole from Bush’s? Whatever the Republican side really believes, perhaps they would be politically well advised to act as if global warming really exists and has the potential to hurt people and help Democrats.

In the age of political marketing, of course, Republicans are tempted just to change their message without changing the positions underlying the message. Would the majority of voters see through that? Probably, as they saw through Mitt Romney’s chameleon act. We humble citizens are actually starting to figure out how marketing works.

Overall, though, little changed nationally on November 6….

continue reading at Politics: A View from West Chester

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Filed under Nathaniel Smith, National govt & politics, PA govt & politics

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